PolymarketOpen

Norrie vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5

Over79%
Under22%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
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Liquidity$191
Spread80%
ResolvesNov 9, 2026in 8 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 31, 12:49 PMOct 31, 10:12 PMNov 1, 07:35 AMNov 1, 04:57 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market refers to the tennis match between Cameron Norrie and Matteo Arnaldi in the Rolex Paris Masters, originally scheduled for November 2, 2026 at 4:00AM ET. This market will resolve to "Over" if the total number of games completed in the first set equals or exceeds 9. Otherwise, it will resolve to "Under." Any first-set tiebreak counts as one (1) game. If the match is postponed or suspended, this market will remain open until the first set has been completed. A postponement alone will not trigger a 50-50 resolution. If the match is permanently abandoned before the first set is completed, or if the first set has not been completed by November 16, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome has already been unconditionally determined based on completed play. An outcome is considered unconditionally determined if it would have been guaranteed under every possible completion of the set played according to the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round, including whether the set is decided by a tiebreak. For example, for a line of 9.5, if play stops with the first set at 5-4, completing the set would have required at least 1 additional game, resulting in at least 10 games played, so "Over" would resolve as the winning outcome. The primary resolution source for this market will be official ATP statistics; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve only when the listed period of play has concluded and the result can be definitively determined by the listed resolution source(s).

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Rolex Paris Masters: Cameron Norrie vs Matteo ArnaldiPolymarket67% Cameron NorrieOpen
Rolex Paris Masters: Completed Match: Cameron Norrie vs Matteo ArnaldiPolymarket51% YesOpen
Norrie vs. Arnaldi: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Norrie vs. Arnaldi: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Norrie vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket70% UnderOpen
Set 2 Winner: Cameron Norrie vs Matteo ArnaldiPolymarket50% Matteo ArnaldiOpen
Norrie vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket53% UnderOpen
Game Spread: Cameron Norrie (-1.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+1.5)Polymarket59% Cameron NorrieOpen
Set 1 Winner: Cameron Norrie vs Matteo ArnaldiPolymarket64% Cameron NorrieOpen
Norrie vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket57% OverOpen
Cameron Norrie vs. Matteo Arnaldi: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket62% Under 2.5Open
Norrie vs. Arnaldi: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket52% UnderOpen
Norrie vs. Arnaldi: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket57% UnderOpen
Set Handicap: Cameron Norrie (-1.5) vs Matteo Arnaldi (+1.5)Polymarket56% Matteo ArnaldiOpen
Norrie vs. Arnaldi: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket75% OverOpen

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As of Nov 1, 05:16 PM UTC