The World Ahead

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?

2026 Midterms: Congress Balance of Power?: Will House Control be Republican AND Senate Control be Democratic for Feb 2027? R-House, D-Senate

Kalshi

Closes Feb 1, 2027

The market asks whether the November 3, 2026 midterm elections will produce a Republican House and Democratic Senate—the chamber alignment expected to govern in February 2027, after the new Congress begins on January 3, 2027. [1] Republicans currently control both chambers, but recent reporting says their House majority is increasingly vulnerable: Cook shifted 15 House races toward Democrats, while Speaker Mike Johnson is planning an intensive campaign tour to defend GOP seats. The Senate contest has also tightened, with Republican hopes in Georgia and North Carolina fading. [2]

Context by Predxy AI · Sep 29, 2026

Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?

Polymarket · Limitless

Closes Dec 31, 2026

As of September 29, 2026, the question asks whether Strait of Hormuz traffic will regain normal operating levels by December 31, 2026—not merely whether limited passage resumes. The stated benchmark is a seven-day average above 60 transits per day; the latest listed average is 3.1, roughly 3.7% of 2025 traffic. [1] The IMO continues to report serious safety concerns affecting about 20,000 seafarers. [2] Mediators are still pursuing a U.S.-Iran deal to reopen the strait, but major obstacles remain after Iran’s reopening proposal was rejected. [3]

Context by Predxy AI · Sep 29, 2026

MLB Championship 2026 winner

Will the MLB Championship 2026 be won by someone other than the listed participants?

TradeXyz

Closes Nov 10, 2026

As of September 29, 2026, the MLB postseason has begun, but the championship has not been decided. The 12-team field comprises the Rays, Guardians, Astros, Yankees, Red Sox, White Sox, Brewers, Dodgers, Braves, Padres, Cubs and Phillies. Wild Card Series games began on September 29, followed by the Division Series and league championship rounds. The World Series is scheduled for October 23–31, 2026. This outcome resolves “Yes” only if the eventual champion is a team outside the market’s separately listed participants; the provided question does not identify which teams are listed. [1]

Context by Predxy AI · Sep 29, 2026

Fed Decision in October?

Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?

Polymarket · Limitless

Closes Oct 28, 2026

As of September 28, 2026, this is a future event: the relevant FOMC meeting is scheduled for October 27–28, not September 29. The outcome is whether the Fed leaves its federal-funds target range unchanged at 3.75%–4.00%. At its September 16 meeting, the Committee unanimously raised the range by 25 basis points, citing solid economic activity, little change in unemployment, and inflation that remained elevated. “No change” resolves positively only if the October decision maintains that range; either a hike or a cut would resolve negatively. [1]

Context by Predxy AI · Sep 28, 2026

Crude Oil all time high by...?

Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?

Polymarket · PredictFun

Closes Oct 1, 2026

The question asks whether a crude-oil benchmark, typically WTI or Brent, will trade above its previous nominal record by the end of September 30, 2026; the exact benchmark should be confirmed in the market rules. WTI’s widely cited record was above $147 per barrel on July 11, 2008. [1] On September 29, Reuters reported Brent at $105.91 and WTI at $93.32, with prices supported by Middle East supply concerns but tempered by recovering regional exports. Both benchmarks therefore remained materially below the historical high as of the latest report. [2]

Context by Predxy AI · Sep 29, 2026

Which company has the best AI model end of September?

Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?

Polymarket · PredictFun

Closes Sep 30, 2026

The question asks which company is judged to have the strongest AI model at the end of September 2026, although no universal scoring rule is specified. OpenAI released GPT‑6 Astra on September 3 and describes it as its most capable deployed model, with strengths in reasoning, coding, computer use and science. [1] Anthropic released Claude Fable 5.1 on September 1 and calls it its most capable model for coding and knowledge work. [2] Third-party rankings disagree: OpenCharts puts Astra first, while BenchLM’s September 28 company table ranks Anthropic ahead of OpenAI. [3] OpenAI DevDay is scheduled for September 29, but the resolution concerns the month-end ranking, not the event itself. [4]

Context by Predxy AI · Sep 29, 2026