Category

World

Every question filed under World, ordered by money at risk.

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01Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?15%Yes2 pts
02US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
PoliticsIranUnited Statespriced by 1 of 2
29%Yes7 pts
03Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
World
4%Yes3 pts
04Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Worldpriced by 1 of 2
22%Yes2 pts
05 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by December 31?
PoliticsIran
10%Yes3 pts
06US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026?14%Yes2 pts
07US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?61%Yes3 pts
08US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by October 31, 2026?4%Yes1 pts
09US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?16%Yes2 pts
10Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) restarts by October 31?74%Yes4 pts
11Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026?5%Yes1 pts
12US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026?57%Yes3 pts
13US-Iran nuclear deal?: Will the US agree to a new Iranian nuclear deal this year? Before Nov 1, 20264%Before Nov 1, 20261 pts
14Will Putin and Zelenskyy meet next in Germany?4%Yes—
15Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before December 1, 2026? Before Dec 1, 2026
World
9%Before Dec 1, 20264 pts
16Eritrea invades Ethiopia by December 31?20%Yes—
17Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
WorldChinaTaiwanpriced by 1 of 2
3%Yes0 pts
18US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31?36%Yes0 pts
19Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by December 31, 2026?70%Yes12 pts
20US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026?8%Yes1 pts
21Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
World
13%Yes2 pts
22Russia military action against an EU country by December 31, 2026?12%Yes1 pts
23Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
WorldIranpriced by 1 of 2
7%Yes0 pts
24Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by...: December 31
Worldpriced by 1 of 2
18%Yes2 pts
25Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?12%Yes2 pts
26Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31?84%Yes1 pts
27NATO x Russia military clash by October 31, 2026?14%Yes1 pts
28Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by October 31?
World
8%Yes2 pts
29Will the 7-day moving average of transit calls through the Strait of Hormuz as reported by the IMF PortWatch be above 60 before January 1, 2027? Before Jan 1, 2027
World
20%Before Jan 1, 20271 pts
30Will a 1+ Year Enrichment Moratorium be in a US-Iran deal in 2026?10%Yes1 pts