Will the United Kingdom join the EU by Dec 31, 2039? Before 2040

45%By Jan 1, 2040

30 ptsover 24h

The field · 3 outcomes

24h volume$148

Total volume$348

Liquidity—

Open interest$177

Markets11 venue, 1 priced

ResolvesJan 1, 2040in 13 years

First seenSep 7, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Kalshi · All recorded history

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▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Kalshi. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

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What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	78¢	128	$128	+$28.21 1.3×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

Will the United Kingdom join the EU by Jan 1, 2040?
55% No$148 24h volume
Resolution rules
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Will the United Kingdom join the EU by Dec 31, 2039? Before 2040

Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

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Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

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