Unclassified

Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?: Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2028?

75%Before 2028

29 ptsover 24h

The field · 4 outcomes

24h volume$92

Total volume$4.1K

Liquidity$0

Open interest$853

Markets11 venue, 1 priced

ResolvesJan 1, 2030in 3 years

First seenSep 25, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Kalshi · All recorded history

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▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Kalshi. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

If you’re right

What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	75¢	133	$133	+$33.33 1.3×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

Will an LLM beat a grandmaster in chess?: Will it be reported that an LLM has beat a grandmaster in chess before 2028?
75% Before 2028$92 24h volume
Resolution rules
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As of Nov 1, 01:45 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.