Will Harry Kane win the Ballon d'Or 2026?
70%Yes
7 ptsover 24hVolume-weighted across 2 of 2 venues
The field · 6 outcomes
24h volume$181.7K
Total volume$1.8M
Markets22 venues, 2 priced
ResolvesNov 5, 2026in 12 days
First seenOct 2, 2026
Watching0
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities on Outcome · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Based on market prices from Outcome. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.
What happened
- The nominees for the men's Ballon d'Or were announced. La liste des nommés au Ballon d'Or dévoilée le 8 septembre
- Reuters reported Kane called 2025-26 the best season of his life and downplayed award talk. Kane plays down Ballon d’Or talk despite stellar season | FMT
- UEFA said Kane was among the men's nominees and explained the voting rules. 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony: When and where, all the nominees and how the awards are decided | Ballon d’Or | UEFA.com
Coming up
- France Football will announce the men's Ballon d'Or winner at the 70th ceremony in London. When and where will the 70th Ballon d'Or™ ceremony take place? – Ballon d'Or
- The men's Ballon d'Or will be handed out at a ceremony in London. 2026 Ballon d'Or ceremony: When and where, all the nominees and how the awards are decided | Ballon d’Or | UEFA.com
Dated from the reporting the question's context cites, and placed alongside the price — never as the reason it moved. Written by AI from cited sources; in English.
If you’re right
What a stake pays at each venue, before fees$
| Venue | Price | Shares | Pays | Profit |
|---|---|---|---|---|
 Best payout | 51¢ | 196 | $196 | +$96.08 2× |
 | 72.1¢* | 139 | $139 | +$38.70 1.4× |
Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.
Where this question trades
2 venuesComparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.
- Will Harry Kane win the Ballon d'Or 2026?72% Yes$107.6K 24h volumeResolution rulesSet your country to see where you can trade.Set your country
- Ballon d'Or 2026 Winner: Harry Kane69% Yes$73.6K 24h volumeResolution rulesSet your country to see where you can trade.Set your country
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As of Oct 24, 12:47 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.