Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history
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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed actor is officially announced as the next James Bond actor by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”.
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This market will resolve based on the first official announcement of who will be the next James Bond, regardless of any changes made thereafter.
If no actor is announced as the next Bond within the timeframe, this market will resolve to "No Bond chosen".
The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Amazon MGM Studios. However, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
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Comments51
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51 comments
From Polymarket's own thread
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Diplopia2 · 11 hours ago
I will warn you though they have announced the 5 finalists so its quite unlikely someone not listed
Diplopia2 · 11 hours ago
then convert and youll get "other"
slowhandz · yesterday
your PnL gonna be red soon
Show 17 more comments
JohnnyDODEPP1 · yesterday
Terner
givemethebucks · 2 days ago
buy NO on the existing options lol
TheSmokingMan · 3 days ago
Put your main big bet in No bond chosen - NO, and then some tails. Good luck!
Electric-Precedent · 3 days ago
What do I buy if I don't think it's any of these?
givemethebucks · 4 days ago
exactly. Lowden is the true Bond
CosmooKramer · 4 days ago
There is no way he gets the role. No chance. Not in this world. no no NO.
givemethebucks · 4 days ago
Pattinson is a big NO
Nimble-Behold-Eviction · 4 days ago
crazy arbitrage
Diplopia2 · 4 days ago
Josh is at 45c on the K site!
Nimble-Behold-Eviction · 5 days ago
Now the twitter fake news has shifted from Callum to Josh?
Fradga · 7 days ago
Callum is married to Dua. He is big amongst Gen Z. He just did a Louis Vuitton ad. Pierce Brosnan just endorsed him. Jeff Bezos will pick him.
givemethebucks · 7 days ago
eh what does he know, he's old now
CalculatedRisk08 · 7 days ago
True. This is the primary reason. However, also a lot of news about him stepping down as a director from his production firm for this role. Which actually happened already in December 2025. So, some misinformation is definitely there.
petersohn · 7 days ago
Not true. The news is that Roger friedman, who leaked the news of craig as bond, said Callum is the new Bond
petersohn · 7 days ago
Roger friedman, the same journalist that leaked Daniel Craig as Bond 20 years ago, said Callum Turner is the new Bond
givemethebucks · 8 days ago
seriously, what news has pumped callum to as high as 70c?
k0sh · 8 days ago
all the news from today are quotes from september. bets those bloggers/authors are juicing these figures cuz they're here with us?