PolymarketOpen

Game Spread: Tomas Machac (-4.5) vs Sebastian Baez (+4.5)

Tomas Machac53%
Sebastian Baez47%

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24h volume$7
7d volume$7
30d volume$7
Liquidity$3.8K
Spread2%
ResolvesNov 8, 2026in 7 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 31, 09:45 PMNov 1, 04:50 AMNov 1, 11:55 AMNov 1, 07:00 PMShaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Tomas Machac" if Tomas Machac wins 4.5 or more total games than Sebastian Baez in the upcoming tennis match, scheduled for November 1, 2026 at 6:30AM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "Sebastian Baez". Games won will be counted across all sets played in the match. A set decided by a tiebreak will count as one game for the winner of that tiebreak, and a match tiebreak played in place of a final set will also count as one game for its winner. If the match is canceled (not played at all), or is delayed beyond 14 days from the scheduled date without completion at 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve 50-50. If the match begins but is not completed due to retirement, default, or disqualification, this market will resolve 50-50, unless the outcome of this market has already been unconditionally determined by the completed portion of play under the match format published by the tournament organizer for that round. For example, if the match ends at a point where Tomas Machac could no longer have finished 4.5 or more games ahead even by winning every remaining game, this market will resolve to "Sebastian Baez". If the match ends in a walkover (player withdraws before the start and the other advances automatically), this market will resolve to 50-50. The primary resolution source will be official information from the ATP Tour. A consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Sourcehttps://www.atptour.com/en/scores/current

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Sebastian Baez vs Tomas MachacPolymarket83% Tomas MachacOpen
Rolex Paris Masters, Qualification: Completed Match: Sebastian Baez vs Tomas MachacPolymarket52% YesOpen
Baez vs. Machac: Match O/U 21.5Polymarket56% UnderOpen
Set Handicap: Tomas Machac (-1.5) vs Sebastian Baez (+1.5)Polymarket61% Tomas MachacOpen
Set Handicap: Sebastian Baez (-1.5) vs Tomas Machac (+1.5)Polymarket90% Tomas MachacOpen
Set 1 Winner: Sebastian Baez vs Tomas MachacPolymarket75% Tomas MachacOpen
Baez vs. Machac: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket76% UnderOpen
Set 2 Winner: Sebastian Baez vs Tomas MachacPolymarket59% Sebastian BaezOpen
Baez vs. Machac: Set 2 Games O/U 10.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Sebastian Baez vs. Tomas Machac: Total Sets O/U 2.5Polymarket69% Under 2.5Open
Baez vs. Machac: Match O/U 22.5Polymarket60% UnderOpen
Baez vs. Machac: Set 2 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Baez vs. Machac: Match O/U 23.5Polymarket54% UnderOpen
Baez vs. Machac: Set 1 Games O/U 9.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen
Baez vs. Machac: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket63% UnderOpen
Baez vs. Machac: Set 2 Games O/U 8.5Polymarket51% UnderOpen

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As of Nov 1, 07:11 PM UTC