PolymarketOpen

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?

Yes87%
No13%

Price checked at

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24h volume$1.7K
7d volume$8.7K
30d volume$8.7K
Liquidity$3.6K
Spread2%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 23Sep 25Sep 27Sep 28Sep 30Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date from market creation to December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?Polymarket100% YesOpen
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?Polymarket89% NoOpen
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?Polymarket55% NoOpen
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?Polymarket100% YesOpen
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?Polymarket77% NoOpen
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?Polymarket64% YesOpen

Venue activity

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Open interest—
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As of Sep 30, 06:21 AM UTC