PolymarketResolved

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?

Yes100%

No0%

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Spread0%

ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?	Polymarket	94% No	$8.2K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Polymarket	79% No	$5.8K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	Polymarket	85% Yes	$2K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Polymarket	56% No	$2K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	Polymarket	100% Yes	$1.8K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Polymarket	57% Yes	$1.3K	—	—	Open

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As of Sep 30, 04:23 PM UTC