PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?

No76%

Yes24%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:58 PM UTC

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24h volume$1.4K

7d volume$19.1K

30d volume$37.5K

Liquidity$916.3

Spread14%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. PredictFun does not publish a separate resolution timestamp, while Polymarket specifies resolution by January 1, 2027 and includes early-resolution and incomplete-data procedures. These are settlement mechanics rather than differences in the underlying question.

PredictFunOpen →
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
read Sep 29, 07:21 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
101 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 29, 08:29 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?	Polymarket	100% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?	Polymarket	89% No	$4.7K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Polymarket	55% No	$4.6K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	Polymarket	91% Yes	$2.1K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Polymarket	64% Yes	$1.9K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	Polymarket	100% Yes	$1.8K	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 hours ago

Holders101

Held value—

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Comments0

Best bid 21% · best ask 37%

Top holders

HDGB19807745274820218436318664068726385243490453006769046292026430944247457642518
ArmageddonRewardsBilly21131496477873579455903585507781251181064860444928699705256348049912729827076
0xd509c5b65d219997c05ec4f788fceb7b40d6fc7019807745274820218436318664068726385243490453006769046292026430944247457642518
Ondra19807745274820218436318664068726385243490453006769046292026430944247457642518
XAE12Archangel21131496477873579455903585507781251181064860444928699705256348049912729827076

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As of Sep 29, 10:21 PM UTC