PolymarketDelistedPart of a cross-venue question →

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?

Yes100%

No0%

Price has not been independently checked yet.

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24h volume$1.8K

7d volume$36K

30d volume$114.3K

Liquidity$8.2K

Spread0%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria are materially the same; Polymarket specifies prompt resolution after a qualifying observation or after the period's data is available, while PredictFun does not specify a settlement timing rule.

PredictFunOpen →
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
read Sep 28, 02:30 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
172 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 22, 04:54 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?	Polymarket	100% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?	Polymarket	89% No	$4.7K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Polymarket	55% No	$4.6K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	Polymarket	91% Yes	$2.1K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Polymarket	64% Yes	$1.9K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Polymarket	76% No	$1.4K	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 8 days ago

Holders172

Held value—

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Best bid 60% · best ask 61%

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As of Sep 29, 10:31 PM UTC