PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?

No89%

Yes11%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:58 PM UTC

Trade

Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →

Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.

24h volume$4.7K

7d volume$22.1K

30d volume$32.8K

Liquidity$2.3K

Spread0%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Polymarket specifies early resolution and a fallback if complete data is unavailable, while PredictFun does not publish those mechanics; Polymarket also specifies a settlement timestamp and PredictFun does not. These differences do not materially change the event being measured.

Polymarketthis market
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". This market will resolve as soon as the Treasury 10-year yield is higher than the listed value, or once data is available for all days in the specified period. If data is not available for all days in the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) of the end of that period, this market will resolve based on the available data at that time. The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
125 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 29, 08:44 PM UTC
PredictFunOpen →
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 6.0% before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Treasury 10-year yield reaches or is higher than the listed value for any date between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026. Otherwise this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market is the Department of the treasury, specially the data listed under "Daily Treasury Par Yield Curve Rates" for the column "10 Yr" (see: https://home.treasury.gov/resource-center/data-chart-center/interest-rates/TextView?type=daily_treasury_yield_curve&field_tdr_date_value=2025).
read Sep 29, 07:25 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.1% before 2027?	Polymarket	100% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027?	Polymarket	55% No	$4.6K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.3% before 2027?	Polymarket	91% Yes	$2.1K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.4% before 2027?	Polymarket	64% Yes	$1.9K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% before 2027?	Polymarket	100% Yes	$1.8K	—	—	Open
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% before 2027?	Polymarket	76% No	$1.4K	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 1 hour ago

Holders125

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 13% · best ask 15%

Top holders

0xe617861a96631d7cefdb1ad43e95c33b5946f25145146369041790876198635366580415867517047049508141037239379654179930940776529
0xff7ca9cd180d33119e653e3eb50555a3e2ccb23333659372827600316727835785655881220724422400527200618608139639039116681963297
XAE12Archangel45146369041790876198635366580415867517047049508141037239379654179930940776529
OverlookHotel33659372827600316727835785655881220724422400527200618608139639039116681963297
Bobggg33659372827600316727835785655881220724422400527200618608139639039116681963297

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY84%$17.92 hours ago
SELL17%$822 hours ago
SELL84%$7.52 hours ago
SELL14%$2.33 hours ago
BUY17%$48.93 hours ago
SELL14%$1.44 hours ago

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

As of Sep 29, 10:14 PM UTC