PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

No80%

Yes20%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:14 PM UTC

Trade

Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →

Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.

24h volume$485.8

7d volume$782.3

30d volume$1.9K

Liquidity$10.7K

Spread6%

ResolvesOct 5, 2026in 5 days

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Kalshi resolves at an earlier stated time and may resolve early based on designated media consensus, while Polymarket resolves by July 1, 2027 and specifies credible reporting or, if ambiguous, official TSE results. Polymarket includes an explicit fallback to “Other” if the result remains unknown; these are resolution-rule differences, not different questions.

KalshiOpen →
Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner?: Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
If Cadu de Lula wins the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 07:49 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
30 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 26, 10:13 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Arinalda do MLB win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Henrique Lyra win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Carlos Jararaca win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Dário Barbosa win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Rodrigo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Professor Roberio Paulino win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	69% Yes	$1K	—	—	Open
Will Álvaro Dias win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	92% No	$224.1	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 3 days ago

Holders30

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 11% · best ask 18%

Top holders

Seeking-Alpha01495540324689445885992361858690891636807383518891531247732985662205326868887
0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296690081147539890928830624364150098067592017742940148511256877420491978194293449
InterestingUser90081147539890928830624364150098067592017742940148511256877420491978194293449
Rr55495540324689445885992361858690891636807383518891531247732985662205326868887
donthackme90081147539890928830624364150098067592017742940148511256877420491978194293449

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY81%$9.93 days ago
BUY81%$32.43 days ago
BUY81%$2.73 days ago
BUY80%$83 days ago
BUY81%$4.13 days ago
BUY81%$8.43 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

As of Sep 29, 09:31 PM UTC