PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Rodrigo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

No100%

Yes0%

Price checked at Sep 29, 11:45 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$10.8K

Spread0%

ResolvesOct 5, 2026in 5 days

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Kalshi may resolve early based on designated media consensus and settles around October 4, 2026, while Polymarket allows the runoff and uses credible reporting or TSE results, with an "Other" fallback if unresolved by June 30, 2027. These are resolution-rule differences rather than differences in the event being measured.

KalshiOpen →
Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner?: Will Rodrigo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
If Rodrigo Bolsonaro wins the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 09:57 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will Rodrigo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
26 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 25, 04:15 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Arinalda do MLB win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Henrique Lyra win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Carlos Jararaca win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Dário Barbosa win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Professor Roberio Paulino win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	70% Yes	$1K	—	—	Open
Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	80% No	$485.8	—	—	Open
Will Álvaro Dias win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	92% No	$224.1	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 4 days ago

Holders26

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

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Open interest—

Comments1

Top holders

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balthazar48788257378191451027141781710465812630948300507309540369800438097743911380889
Deafening-Possible48788257378191451027141781710465812630948300507309540369800438097743911380889
godblessme202648788257378191451027141781710465812630948300507309540369800438097743911380889
sanduspace48788257378191451027141781710465812630948300507309540369800438097743911380889

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Discussion on Predxy

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1 comment

From Polymarket's own thread

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Prize-Maybe · 8 hours ago
Cadu à frente na Atlasintel de hoje (29/09) 🔴 Cadu de Lula (PT): 37,1% 🟡 Álvaro Dias (PL): 27,3% 🟢 Allyson (União Brasil): 27,1% ⚫ Outros: 2,5% ⚪ Branco/Nulo/Não sei: 6,0%

As of Sep 30, 12:16 AM UTC