PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Arinalda do MLB win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

No100%

Yes0%

Price checked at Sep 29, 11:45 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$10.8K

Spread0%

ResolvesOct 5, 2026in 5 days

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Polymarket may use consensus reporting and ultimately Brazil’s TSE, with a June 30, 2027 fallback; Kalshi may resolve early based on designated media sources. Kalshi labels the affirmative outcome “Arinalda do MLB” rather than “Yes.”

Polymarketthis market
Will Arinalda do MLB win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
34 holders · 1 comments · read Sep 29, 10:31 PM UTC
KalshiOpen →
Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner?: Will Arinalda do MLB win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
If Arinalda do MLB wins the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 10:50 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Henrique Lyra win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Carlos Jararaca win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Dário Barbosa win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Rodrigo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Professor Roberio Paulino win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	70% Yes	$1K	—	—	Open
Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	80% No	$485.8	—	—	Open
Will Álvaro Dias win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	92% No	$224.1	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 1 hour ago

Holders34

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments1

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296635354158050022974264322105927165983812542285075724219816910399815344819681506
balthazar106969611797903373530857462879566461837067661485586775068954424167071679470073
Deafening-Possible106969611797903373530857462879566461837067661485586775068954424167071679470073
Lucerys106969611797903373530857462879566461837067661485586775068954424167071679470073
e46m3106969611797903373530857462879566461837067661485586775068954424167071679470073

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Discussion on Predxy

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1 comment

From Polymarket's own thread

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Prize-Maybe · 7 hours ago
Cadu à frente na Atlasintel de hoje (29/09) 🔴 Cadu de Lula (PT): 37,1% 🟡 Álvaro Dias (PL): 27,3% 🟢 Allyson (União Brasil): 27,1% ⚫ Outros: 2,5% ⚪ Branco/Nulo/Não sei: 6,0%

As of Sep 29, 11:46 PM UTC