PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Dário Barbosa win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

No100%

Yes0%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:54 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$10.7K

Spread0%

ResolvesOct 5, 2026in 5 days

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Polymarket may account for a runoff and uses credible reporting/TSE results, with a June 30, 2027 fallback; Kalshi can settle early based on designated media consensus and lists an October 4, 2026 settlement time. These are resolution-method and timing differences, not different questions.

Polymarketthis market
Will Dário Barbosa win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
34 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 26, 09:12 PM UTC
KalshiOpen →
Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner?: Will Dário Barbosa win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
If Dário Barbosa wins the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 10:24 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Arinalda do MLB win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Henrique Lyra win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Carlos Jararaca win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Rodrigo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Professor Roberio Paulino win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	70% Yes	$1K	—	—	Open
Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	80% No	$485.8	—	—	Open
Will Álvaro Dias win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	92% No	$224.1	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 3 days ago

Holders34

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments1

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296617992639120594356127066264957647048073322880564425442134232373528615572980343
balthazar6208793746114684460124091247254872952029356345038811084043214375709349283616
Deafening-Possible6208793746114684460124091247254872952029356345038811084043214375709349283616
donthackme6208793746114684460124091247254872952029356345038811084043214375709349283616
mildwindow276208793746114684460124091247254872952029356345038811084043214375709349283616

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Recent trades

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Discussion on Predxy

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1 comment

From Polymarket's own thread

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Prize-Maybe · 7 hours ago
Cadu à frente na Atlasintel de hoje (29/09) 🔴 Cadu de Lula (PT): 37,1% 🟡 Álvaro Dias (PL): 27,3% 🟢 Allyson (União Brasil): 27,1% ⚫ Outros: 2,5% ⚪ Branco/Nulo/Não sei: 6,0%

As of Sep 29, 11:14 PM UTC