PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

Yes70%

No31%

Price checked at Sep 29, 10:04 PM UTC

Trade

Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →

Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.

24h volume$1K

7d volume$3K

30d volume$6.2K

Liquidity$11.1K

Spread2%

ResolvesOct 5, 2026in 5 days

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. Polymarket may resolve after the election, including a runoff, with a June 30, 2027 fallback and TSE/credible-reporting criteria. Kalshi lists October 4, 2026 and may resolve early based on designated media consensus; these are resolution-rule differences rather than different events.

Polymarketthis market
Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).
64 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 28, 10:44 AM UTC
KalshiOpen →
Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner?: Will Allyson win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?
If Allyson wins the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.
read Sep 29, 10:19 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will Arinalda do MLB win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Henrique Lyra win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Carlos Jararaca win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Dário Barbosa win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Rodrigo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Professor Roberio Paulino win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	80% No	$485.8	—	—	Open
Will Álvaro Dias win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?	Polymarket	92% No	$224.1	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue yesterday

Holders64

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 15% · best ask 18%

Top holders

0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296626787399292462186067065802746469200044226307299892885117304804886467400428657
Seeking-Alpha0126787399292462186067065802746469200044226307299892885117304804886467400428657
InterestingUser71352779016189015332607649652262456476227883394744115700920079870326728388775
Serpentine-Majority71352779016189015332607649652262456476227883394744115700920079870326728388775
Cb94C437EA5e6f088c6c0C143c592ab8EFBed71352779016189015332607649652262456476227883394744115700920079870326728388775

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY18%$8.32 days ago
BUY18%$1.72 days ago
BUY18%$30.62 days ago
BUY17%$5.12 days ago
BUY84%$812 days ago
BUY17%$5.12 days ago

Discussion on Predxy

What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.

Nobody has said anything here yet.

As of Sep 29, 10:20 PM UTC