Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner?: Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

No81%
Cadu de Lula19%

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24h volume$105.5
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
Spread4%
ResolvesOct 4, 2026in 5 days

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 9Sep 16Sep 22Sep 29Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Cadu de Lula wins the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. Kalshi resolves at an earlier stated time and may resolve early based on designated media consensus, while Polymarket resolves by July 1, 2027 and specifies credible reporting or, if ambiguous, official TSE results. Polymarket includes an explicit fallback to “Other” if the result remains unknown; these are resolution-rule differences, not different questions.
  • Kalshithis market

    Rio Grande do Norte Governor winner?: Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

    If Cadu de Lula wins the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election, then the market resolves to Yes. This market may resolve early once a consensus of designated media sources has declared a winner. See full rules for details.

    read Sep 29, 06:36 PM UTC

  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will Cadu de Lula win the 2026 Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election?

    The Rio Grande do Norte gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who wins this election. Temporary, interim, or placeholder governors appointed by any means before the specified election will not be considered. If the result of this election isn't known by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the result of the election, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by the Brazilian government, specifically the Superior Electoral Court (Tribunal Superior Eleitoral, TSE) (e.g., www.tse.jus.br/eleicoes/resultados-eleicoes).

    30 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 26, 10:13 PM UTC

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As of Sep 29, 07:22 PM UTC