PolymarketDelistedPart of a cross-venue question →

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?

Yes100%

No0%

Price has not been independently checked yet.

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24h volume$651.3

7d volume$985.3

30d volume$2.6K

Liquidity$6.6K

Spread0%

ResolvesNov 1, 2026next month

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria are materially identical, including the corroborating sources and treatment of post-launch anomalies and vehicle name changes. Polymarket lists a resolution time; PredictFun does not publish one, which does not change the underlying question.

Polymarketthis market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
47 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 24, 03:40 AM UTC
PredictFunOpen →
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?
If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.
read Sep 28, 09:01 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 29?	Polymarket	100% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 28?	Polymarket	100% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	Polymarket	100% Yes	$26K	—	—	Open
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	Polymarket	100% Yes	$16.9K	—	—	Open
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	Polymarket	100% No	$3.9K	—	—	Open
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?	Polymarket	100% No	$2.2K	—	—	Open
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?	Polymarket	100% Yes	$534	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 6 days ago

Holders47

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 1% · best ask 4%

Top holders

bshardy33754061359734910399423147080818648628852684517139458321758453284362908156537
XAE12Archangel33754061359734910399423147080818648628852684517139458321758453284362908156537
0xd5d87cd36116710804a9a7bad3088a3cceaf272233754061359734910399423147080818648628852684517139458321758453284362908156537
51566969127170111326968110099127797442219094939950468679314867864664268634928933042718
plsnothackme27170111326968110099127797442219094939950468679314867864664268634928933042718

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As of Sep 30, 04:33 AM UTC