PolymarketResolved

Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 29?

Yes100%

No0%

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ResolvesSep 30, 2026in 5 hours

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If the 14th SpaceX Starship successfully launches from its launch pad by September 29, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Yes”. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The outcome of any launch will be corroborated by examining official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary. Any subsequent anomaly (e.g., an explosion) after the launch will have no bearing on the outcome. Any name change of the Starship with another vehicle will have no bearing on the outcome of the market.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26?	Polymarket	100% No	—	—	—	Open
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 28?	Polymarket	100% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30?	Polymarket	100% Yes	$26K	—	—	Open
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?	Polymarket	100% Yes	$16.9K	—	—	Open
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship?	Polymarket	100% No	$3.9K	—	—	Open
Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster?	Polymarket	100% No	$2.2K	—	—	Open
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31?	Polymarket	100% Yes	$651.3	—	—	Open
Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown?	Polymarket	100% Yes	$534	—	—	Open

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As of Sep 29, 11:19 PM UTC