Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?
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Probability history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
The same question elsewhere
2 venues carry it- Polymarketthis market
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
- PredictFunOpen →
Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy explode?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the booster for the 14th Starship-SuperHeavy test explodes at any point during the test from the start of fueling operations to 60 minutes after it makes contact with Earth upon landing. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An explosion is defined as a violent and catastrophic event resulting in the destruction of all or part of the vehicle, regardless of intent or context (e.g., a planned termination event would also count). If the 14th launch has not occurred by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be official video provided by SpaceX (https://www.youtube.com/c/SpaceX), as well as secondary video feeds and/or written reports if necessary.
read Sep 28, 09:00 AM UTC
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 26? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 29? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 28? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by September 30? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Starship? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 Superheavy booster? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 launch by October 31? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
| Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 14 achieve a successful splashdown? | Polymarket | 100% Yes | Open |
Venue activity
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As of Sep 30, 01:02 AM UTC