Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
The same question elsewhere
4 venues carry it- Polymarketthis market
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
496 holders · 441 comments · read Sep 26, 12:49 PM UTC
- LimitlessOpen →
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028: Ted Cruz
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
8 holders · read Sep 29, 08:36 PM UTC
- OpinionOpen →
Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 — Ted Cruz
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
read Sep 29, 10:08 PM UTC
- PredictFunOpen →
Will Ted Cruz win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of official Republican Party sources. Any replacement of the Republican nominee before election day will not change the resolution of the market.
read Sep 29, 08:25 PM UTC
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.Venue activity
Read from the venue 3 days agoBest bid 98% · best ask 98%
Top holders
- 0xa5ef39c3d3e10d0b270233af41cac69796b1296667427191791815068910367164354907762897739120962449893449251138341231627575633
- bernardbulletin75602319799101799832214450648958470414659751617273540482126444460192042893239
- 1112275602319799101799832214450648958470414659751617273540482126444460192042893239
- Chungvicular75602319799101799832214450648958470414659751617273540482126444460192042893239
- Brokie75602319799101799832214450648958470414659751617273540482126444460192042893239
A snapshot of positions, not a track record.
Recent trades
- SELL2%$2.13 days ago
- SELL2%$0.14 days ago
- BUY2%$54 days ago
- SELL2%$3.64 days ago
- SELL2%$0.14 days ago
- BUY2%$3.74 days ago
Discussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
442 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- oilboil · 8 days ago
A Republican primary rewards actual delegates
- Ray.Robinson · 12 days ago
didn't understand implied probability until i started using prеdiсuе. now i get it
- cleanprint · 13 days ago
everyone called this a coronation and the board's pricing a brawl, vance 51 and kennedy 49, the fight was priced on polybro before the pundits saw it
- vigfood404 · 13 days ago
and what you will say if they lose?
- Unfit-Sunset · 13 days ago
sitting vice presidents don't lose primaries in the modern era, but this board's pricing a fight, vance 51 and kennedy 49 on polybro dial is not a coronation, the heir's going to have to earn it
- OnGodNoCap · 19 days ago
gas prices keep going up because of iran, he’d get schlacked
- kjhdfhj77hfe6TT · 20 days ago
Vance looks plausible, not inevitable
- gfhtyuseg · 21 days ago
J. D. Vance really good for this job
- vigfood404 · 29 days ago
youre good!
- nimatinos299992 · last month
not only his. think so man!
- jimceryt999 · last month
fake code
- OnGodNoCap · last month
lol naw
- OnGodNoCap · last month
facts
- TheBigMuscle · 2 months ago
Kemp won the last governor election in Georgia by 8%, yet he declined to run for senate there this year. It's pretty clear he wants to run for president in 2028. He has the best chance if the Trump brand becomes unpopular or if trump dies.
- bananajamsamin · 2 months ago
if it will be not official?
- vigfood404 · 2 months ago
i know better guy here!
- bananavomBa717 · 2 months ago
i know rubio can win if he will do great things
- zelemantata8 · 2 months ago
husk
- rillsoapsters · 2 months ago
no no!!!
- Ozir · 2 months ago
It's rubio
As of Sep 29, 10:25 PM UTC