Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
7%Yes
5 ptsover 24hPlain mean across 0 of 2 venues
24h volume$0
Total volume$0
Markets22 venues, 0 priced
ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months
First seenSep 2, 2026
Watching0
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities on Pascal · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
No recorded data before Oct 1 in this window.
Based on market prices from Pascal. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.
Where this question trades
2 venuesComparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.
- PascalBest AI model end of December 2026: xAI99% No$0 24h volumeResolution rules →Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →
- PolymarketWill xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?88% Nono volume publishedResolution rules →Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →
More in AI
- 1Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?38%Yes11 pts
- 2Best AI at the end of 2026?: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? Gemini37%Gemini3 pts
- 3Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?60%Yes10 pts
- 4Best AI at the end of 2026?: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? ChatGPT10%ChatGPT2 pts
- 5When will Anthropic officially announce an IPO? Before Nov 1, 20266%Before Nov 1, 20269 pts
As of Oct 2, 04:42 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.