Best AI model end of December 2026: xAI

No99%
Yes1%

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ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Oct 1, 06:25 PMOct 2, 01:11 AMOct 2, 07:56 AMOct 2, 02:42 PM

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Resolution rules

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SourcePolymarket market will-xai-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-december-2026

The same question elsewhere

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Comparable, not identical. Polymarket specifies the Chatbot Arena Text Arena overall leaderboard and checks by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET; Pascal publishes no criteria. Their listed resolution timestamps differ, but that is only a settlement-time difference.
  • Pascalthis market

    Best AI model end of December 2026: xAI

    The venue publishes no resolution criteria for this market.

    read Oct 2, 02:34 PM UTC

  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will xAI have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.

    43 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 29, 09:03 AM UTC

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As of Oct 2, 02:42 PM UTC