PascalOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Best AI model end of December 2026: Microsoft

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24h volume$0

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ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

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SourcePolymarket market will-microsoft-have-the-best-ai-model-at-the-end-of-december-2026

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

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Comparable, not identical. Polymarket specifies Chatbot Arena’s Text Arena Overall leaderboard, style control off, and tie handling; Pascal publishes no separate criteria and references the Polymarket market. The venues also list different settlement timestamps, with no material change to the underlying question.

PolymarketOpen →
Will Microsoft have a #1 AI model by December 31, 2026?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed company has the highest arena rank based on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." Results from the "Rank" column under the "Text Arena | Overall" Leaderboard tab at https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text with style control off will be used to resolve this market. If a listed model ties for #1 Arena rank, it will suffice to resolve this market to "Yes." The resolution source for this market is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard found at https://lmarena.ai/. If this resolution source is unavailable at check time, this market will remain open until the leaderboard comes back online and will resolve based on the first check after it becomes available. If it becomes permanently unavailable, this market will resolve based on another resolution source.
24 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 29, 09:10 AM UTC
Pascalthis market
Best AI model end of December 2026: Microsoft
The venue publishes no resolution criteria for this market.
read Oct 2, 07:06 AM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Best AI model end of December 2026: Google	Pascal	64% No	$52.8	—	—	Open
Best AI model end of December 2026: Amazon	Pascal	—	$0	—	—	Open
Best AI model end of December 2026: Anthropic	Pascal	53% Yes	$0	—	—	Open
Best AI model end of December 2026: Baidu	Pascal	—	$0	—	—	Open
Best AI model end of December 2026: Alibaba	Pascal	99% No	$0	—	—	Open
Best AI model end of December 2026: xAI	Pascal	99% No	$0	—	—	Open
Best AI model end of December 2026: OpenAI	Pascal	93% No	$0	—	—	Open
Best AI model end of December 2026: Meituan	Pascal	—	$0	—	—	Open
Best AI model end of December 2026: DeepSeek	Pascal	100% No	$0	—	—	Open
Best AI model end of December 2026: Meta	Pascal	99% No	$0	—	—	Open
Best AI model end of December 2026: ByteDance	Pascal	—	$0	—	—	Open
Best AI model end of December 2026: Moonshot	Pascal	—	$0	—	—	Open
Best AI model end of December 2026: Mistral	Pascal	—	$0	—	—	Open
Best AI model end of December 2026: Z.ai	Pascal	—	$0	—	—	Open

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As of Oct 2, 07:06 AM UTC