Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?

14%Yes

16 ptsover 24h

The field · 6 outcomes

24h volume$688

Total volume$13.7K

Liquidity$1.2K

Open interest—

Markets11 venue, 1 priced

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months

First seenOct 21, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Polymarket · All recorded history

Open the market

Drag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom

▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

If you’re right

What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	15¢	667	$667	+$567 6.7×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?
86% No$688 24h volume
Resolution rules
Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country

Search

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model added to the Arena Leaderboard debut at a score of at least 1470?

Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

More in AI

Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

More in AI