Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

29%Yes

1 ptsover 24h

The field · 9 outcomes

24h volume$135

Total volume$17.4K

Liquidity$692

Open interest—

Markets11 venue, 1 priced

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months

First seenSep 2, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Polymarket · All recorded history

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▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

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What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	37¢	270	$270	+$170 2.7×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

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1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?
71% No$135 24h volume
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Will Google be the first company to have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026?

Probability history

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Where this question trades

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Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

More in AI