Will Anthropic announce bankruptcy by December 31, 2029?

21%Yes
0 ptsover 24hVolume-weighted across 1 of 2 venues
24h volume$20
Total volume$17K
Markets22 venues, 1 priced
ResolvesJan 1, 2030in 3 years
First seenSep 17, 2026
Watching0

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 18Sep 21Sep 25Sep 28Oct 2

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

Where this question trades

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.
  1. 1Best AI at the end of 2026?: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? Gemini
    36%Gemini3 pts
  2. 2Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
    40%Yes12 pts
  3. 3Will Google have the best AI model at the end of October 2026?
    61%Yes11 pts
  4. 4Best AI at the end of 2026?: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? ChatGPT
    10%ChatGPT4 pts
  5. 5Will Anthropic IPO by December 31, 2026?
    84%Yes4 pts

As of Oct 2, 01:40 PM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.