Which ballot measures will pass in California?: Will Proposition 4 pass?

21%Proposition 4

1 ptsover 24h

The field · 13 outcomes

24h volume$13

Total volume$2.6K

Liquidity—

Open interest$2.3K

Markets11 venue, 1 priced

ResolvesNov 3, 2027next year

First seenSep 7, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Kalshi · All recorded history

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Based on market prices from Kalshi. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

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What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	23¢	435	$435	+$335 4.3×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

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1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

Which ballot measures will pass in California?: Will Proposition 4 pass?
79% No$13 24h volume
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Which ballot measures will pass in California?: Will Proposition 4 pass?

Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

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Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

More in Politics