National Book Award for Fiction: Will The Disappearers win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?

1%The Disappearers

0 ptsover 24h

The field · 6 outcomes

24h volume$38

Total volume$1.4K

Liquidity—

Open interest$863

Markets11 venue, 1 priced

ResolvesNov 19, 2026in 18 days

First seenSep 23, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Kalshi · All recorded history

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▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Kalshi. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

If you’re right

What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	2¢	5,000	$5,000	+$4,900 50×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

National Book Award for Fiction: Will The Disappearers win Fiction at the 77th National Book Awards?
99% No$38 24h volume
Resolution rules
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As of Nov 1, 09:19 AM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.