Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

5%Yes

12 ptsover 24h

The field · 2 outcomes

24h volume$2.9K

Total volume$4.1K

Liquidity$18.8K

Open interest—

Markets11 venue, 1 priced

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months

First seenOct 30, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Polymarket · All recorded history

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▲▼ a move of 8 points or more in a day

Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

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What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	5.1¢	1,961	$1,961	+$1,861 19.6×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

Where this question trades

1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?
96% No$2.9K 24h volume
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Hormuz Island no longer under Iranian control by December 31?

Probability history

If you’re right

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Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

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