CA-24 House election: Bob Smith vote percent: Will Bob Smith receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-24 House election?

24%At least 40%

5 ptsover 24h

The field · 8 outcomes

24h volume$0

Total volume$875

Liquidity—

Open interest$670

Markets11 venue, 0 priced

ResolvesJan 3, 2027in 2 months

First seenSep 12, 2026

Watching0

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities on Kalshi · All recorded history

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Based on market prices from Kalshi. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.

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What a stake pays at each venue, before fees

Stake

Side

Venue	Price	Shares	Pays	Profit
	82¢	122	$122	+$21.95 1.2×

Every share pays $1 if the side wins and nothing if it loses. Venue fees, and the price moving under a large order, are not included. * Last traded price, not a live quote. Not financial advice.

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1 venue

Comparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.

CA-24 House election: Bob Smith vote percent: Will Bob Smith receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-24 House election?
76% No$0 24h volume
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CA-24 House election: Bob Smith vote percent: Will Bob Smith receive at least 40% of the popular vote in the 2026 CA-24 House election?

Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

More in Politics

Probability history

If you’re right

Where this question trades

More in Politics