Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming NFL football game between Bills and Vikings, scheduled for November 9 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Justin Jefferson records more than 69.5 receiving yards in this game, and to "Under" if Justin Jefferson records 69.5 or fewer receiving yards. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com at the conclusion of the game. Stat corrections issued after the game has been completed will not count. If the player is inactive or does not play, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Comparable, not identical. Polymarket resolves binary over/under 69.5 using the official NFL game book; Kalshi pays on a scalar schedule based on official receiving yards from the same game. The published criteria differ in payout mechanics, not in the underlying fact being measured.
this market
Justin Jefferson: Receiving Yards O/U 69.5
In the upcoming NFL football game between Bills and Vikings, scheduled for November 9 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Over" if Justin Jefferson records more than 69.5 receiving yards in this game, and to "Under" if Justin Jefferson records 69.5 or fewer receiving yards. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com at the conclusion of the game. Stat corrections issued after the game has been completed will not count. If the player is inactive or does not play, this market will resolve to "Under". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
If Each Yes contract pays per receiving yards by Justin Jefferson in the Buffalo vs Minnesota Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026. Each 10 receiving yards increase the payout by the following schedule: 0–9 yards, $0.0000; 10–19, $0.0001; 20–29, $0.0010; 30–39, $0.0033; 40–49, $0.0080; 50–59, $0.0156; 60–69, $0.0270; 70–79, $0.0428; 80–89, $0.0640; 90–99, $0.0911; 100–109, $0.1250; 110–119, $0.1663; 120–129, $0.2160; 130–139, $0.2746; 140–149, $0.3430; 150–159, $0.4218; 160–169, $0.5120; 170–179, $0.6141; 180–189, $0.7290; 190–199, $0.8573; and 200 or more, $1.0000. Each No contract pays $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Yes pays out at most $1.00. Then the market resolves to Yes.
This is a scalar market. The Yes payout per contract shown above follows this calculation:
Payout Formula = floor(10000 x (y / 200)^3) / 10000
y = min(200, max(0, 10 x floor(s / 10)))
s = official receiving yards
The No payout is $1.00 minus the Yes payout. Negative receiving yard totals pay Yes $0.00.
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