Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history
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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
In the upcoming NFL football game between Bills and Vikings, scheduled for November 9 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Josh Allen scores 2 or more rushing or receiving touchdowns in this game. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Defensive and special teams touchdowns do not count. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com at the conclusion of the game. Stat corrections issued after the game has been completed will not count. If the player is inactive or does not play, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Comparable, not identical. Both resolve on Josh Allen recording 2+ touchdowns in the same Buffalo vs Minnesota game; Polymarket uses the official NFL game book and Kalshi adds protected-participation rules for certain edge cases. The published criteria differ in settlement mechanics and source, but not in the underlying event asked.
this market
Josh Allen: 2+ Touchdowns
In the upcoming NFL football game between Bills and Vikings, scheduled for November 9 at 8:15 PM ET: This market will resolve to "Yes" if Josh Allen scores 2 or more rushing or receiving touchdowns in this game. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Defensive and special teams touchdowns do not count. Overtime is included if played. All statistics are based on the official NFL game book as published on NFL.com at the conclusion of the game. Stat corrections issued after the game has been completed will not count. If the player is inactive or does not play, this market will resolve to "No". If the game is postponed, this market will remain open until the game has been completed. If the game is canceled entirely, with no make-up game, this market will resolve 50-50.
Buffalo vs Minnesota: Touchdowns: Josh Allen: 2+ touchdowns (Protected)
If Josh Allen records 2+ touchdowns in the Buffalo vs Minnesota Pro Football game originally scheduled for Nov 9, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes.
This Contract is designated as protected. If the individual player participates in at least one play during the first half of the game but does not participate in any play after the conclusion of the first half, including any overtime period, this Contract resolves to the fair price prior to the opening kickoff of the game unless the player records the required number of touchdowns, in which case this Contract settles based on actual statistics. If the player participates in at least one play after the conclusion of the first half, this Contract settles based on actual statistics, regardless of first-half participation. Injury, an injury designation, or being ruled out is not required for protection.
Participation in a play nullified by penalty counts. Lining up for a play stopped by a penalty before the snap, without participating in a subsequent play, does not count. A player who never participates remains subject to the fair price non-participation rule. The protected designation applies only to full-game contracts with an above or at-least payout criterion. This event uses at least full game touchdowns including overtime. Passing touchdowns do not count as touchdowns scored by the passer. Team defense/special-teams selections settle on actual touchdowns; the player participation exception does not apply to them.
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read Nov 10, 05:48 PM UTC
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