KalshiOpenPart of a cross-venue question

Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? Raphinha

Raphinha90%

No10%

Price checked at Nov 1, 11:50 AM UTC

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24h volume$6

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity—

Spread25%

ResolvesJan 1, 2028next year

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Raphinha wins the men's Ballon d'Or in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

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Comparable, not identical. Polymarket specifies France Football/UEFA as the resolution source and has explicit tie/cancellation/no-winner fallback rules. Kalshi states the same win condition but publishes fewer resolution details; this is not a material difference in the question asked.

Open
Will Raphinha win the 2027 Ballon d'Or?
This market will resolve to the player who wins the Ballon d'Or award for the 2027 Ballon d'Or. In the event of a tie, this market will resolve according to the official winner as determined by France Football and UEFA rules. If multiple winners are announced, this market will resolve to "Other". If the 2027 Ballon d'Or is cancelled, postponed after March 31, 2028, 11:59 PM ET, or there is otherwise no winner declared within that timeframe, this market will resolve to "Other". The resolution source for this market will be official information from France Football and UEFA; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
this market
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? Raphinha
If Raphinha wins the men's Ballon d'Or in 2027, then the market resolves to Yes. Kalshi is not affiliated, associated, authorized, endorsed by, or in any way officially connected with the Governing League. All trademarks, logos, and brand names are the property of their respective owners.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? Lamine Yamal	Kalshi	67% No	$701	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? Harry Kane	Kalshi	67% No	$0	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? Kylian Mbappe	Kalshi	65% No	$0	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? Erling Haaland	Kalshi	99% No	$0	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? Alisson Becker	Kalshi	57% No	$0	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? Michael Olise	Kalshi	95% No	$0	—	—	Open
Who will win the Ballon d'Or in 2027? Desire Doue	Kalshi	97% No	$0	—	—	Open

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As of Nov 1, 12:36 PM UTC