UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Aaron Pico" if Aaron Pico is officially declared the winner of the fight against Losene Keita at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Losene Keita" if Losene Keita is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Sourcehttps://www.ufc.com/events
The same question elsewhere
5 venues carry it
this marketUFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)
This market will resolve to "Aaron Pico" if Aaron Pico is officially declared the winner of the fight against Losene Keita at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Losene Keita" if Losene Keita is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
Aaron Pico wins
If Aaron Pico wins the Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita professional MMA fight originally scheduled for Oct 24, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If the fight ends in a draw/no contest, both markets will resolve to $0.50. Note that any revisions after Expiration will not be considered. Therefore, if a fighter is disqualified, removed, or the official result of the fight is reversed or changed in any way after the Contract expires, that will not impact resolution. If the fight is postponed but begins within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start time, the market will remain open and resolve based on the official final result. If the fight is cancelled or not started within 48 hours of its originally scheduled start, both markets will resolve to a fair price. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship, UFC. Any references to the “UFC,” or any other associated marks are descriptive only, and do not indicate an endorsement of this product or any affiliation between Zuffa and Kalshi.
read Oct 22, 01:00 AM UTC
Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita: Aaron Pico wins
Novig UFC money market on Aaron Pico vs Losene Keita, scheduled 2026-10-24 18:00 UTC. Sides: Aaron Pico / Losene Keita. A void settles every outcome at its fair market value, not a refund. The exchange's rulebook governs settlement.
read Oct 24, 01:42 PM UTC
UFC 333: Aaron Pico vs. Losene Keita (Featherweight, Prelims)
This market will resolve to "Aaron Pico" if Aaron Pico is officially declared the winner of the fight against Losene Keita at UFC 333: Volkanovski vs. Evloev, scheduled for October 24, 2026. It will resolve to "Losene Keita" if Losene Keita is officially declared the winner. If the fight is declared a draw or technical draw, ruled a No Contest, not scored, canceled, or postponed beyond November 7, 2026, this market will resolve "50-50." The resolution source for this market will be official information from the UFC.
0 holders · read Oct 24, 09:36 AM UTC
Pico vs Keita: Aaron Pico
This market resolves to Yes if Aaron Pico wins the Pico vs Keita professional MMA fight scheduled for October 24, 2026 at 2:00 PM ET. Important information: If the fight ends in a draw/tie or no contest, this market will resolve No. If the fight is postponed or delayed, the market will remain open and close after the rescheduled fight has finished (within 7 days). If the fight is cancelled or rescheduled to over 7 days away, the market will resolve to a fair price in accordance with the rules. Sources: The Wall Street Journal, Fox Sports, and ESPN. This market and these products have not been endorsed by Zuffa LLC, d/b/a Ultimate Fighting Championship (UFC). Note: this event is mutually exclusive. Read the full contract [terms & conditions](https://assets.gemini.com/predictions/terms_and_conditions/Sporting_Win_Lose_Event_2_Terms_and_Conditions_f232ede2-4e1a-4126-a1d7-89e0fa2225e2.pdf)
read Oct 22, 07:24 AM UTC
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Fight to Go the Distance? | Polymarket | 64% No | Open |
| Will the fight be won by KO or TKO? | Polymarket | 55% Yes | Open |
| Will Losene Keita win by KO or TKO? | Polymarket | 72% No | Open |
| Will the fight be won by submission? | Polymarket | 91% No | Open |
| Will the fight end before Round 2? | Polymarket | 70% No | Open |
| Will the fight end before Round 3? | Polymarket | 51% Yes | Open |
| Will Aaron Pico win in Round 3? | Polymarket | 93% No | Open |
| Will Aaron Pico win in Round 2? | Polymarket | 89% No | Open |
| Will Losene Keita win in Round 1? | Polymarket | 85% No | Open |
| Will Losene Keita win in Round 2? | Polymarket | 91% No | Open |
| O/U 2.5 Rounds | Polymarket | 58% Under | Open |
| Will the fight be won by decision? | Polymarket | 64% No | Open |
| O/U 0.5 Rounds | Polymarket | 84% Over | Open |
| Will Aaron Pico win in Round 1? | Polymarket | 85% No | Open |
| Will Losene Keita win in Round 3? | Polymarket | 94% No | Open |
| Will the fight end in a decision or draw? | Polymarket | 64% No | Open |
| Will Aaron Pico win by KO or TKO? | Polymarket | 74% No | Open |
| O/U 1.5 Rounds | Polymarket | 57% Over | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
As of Oct 24, 04:56 PM UTC