PolymarketOpen

Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026?

Yes56%
No44%

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Opens the venue in a new tab, through Predxy.
24h volume$40
7d volume$731
30d volume$9.3K
Liquidity$229
Spread28%
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 2 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.

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Comments25

Discussion on Predxy

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25 comments

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  • tomatoapple · 19 days ago

    Oh come on, Argon should count as pro!!

  • Keldarton · 29 days ago

    Announced, not released. And not with a pro tier yet.

  • Zabahudin · last month

    No

  • K7fhp9vXm2Rtw4LbN8cGy3Ds6AoE · last month

    Gemini 4 Argon has already been released.

  • K7fhp9vXm2Rtw4LbN8cGy3Ds6AoE · last month

    Does Argon count as Pro ?

  • Konfucious · last month

    cheeky insiders

  • Dafdafv66 · last month

    Ridiculous

  • George.Smiley · last month

    Insiders will be wrong then, not coming out today

  • avaaweb3 · last month

    insider game

  • JJ-9527 · last month

    How is Sep 30 priced higher than Oct 9 now? This market is getting ridiculous lol. What is going on here?

  • JJ-9527 · last month

    How is Sept 30 suddenly at 11% while Oct 15 is dropping lol? That makes no sense. Sept 30 should be way below 11%. The next model is almost certainly Gemini 4.0, not another 3.x Pro.

  • Never-KYS · last month

    By october 31 is a lock😎

  • Ponno · last month

    NEXT 3 DAYS TRUST

  • mvaulina57 · 2 months ago

    any rumors?

  • Harmful-Gosling · 3 months ago

    any reference?

  • dabitron · 3 months ago

    gemini 3.5 pro leaked in lmarena

  • lamyk · 3 months ago

    ncw buy my shares please or sell into my order, 58c y, 42c n, both ok. i need this.

  • Klutzy-Comma · 4 months ago

    gemini pro is realeseing on july 24 lol

  • Bogus-Killing · 4 months ago

    you are not a leaker sonion its being delayed because they had to completely redo the ground work. being it was trained on an older model. more modern leaks show it mogs fable

  • stray23 · 4 months ago

    I believe you`re wrong. See the

As of Nov 1, 01:24 PM UTC