Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by November 30, 2026?
Price checked at
Prices have not been checked within the last hour.
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Google's next Gemini Pro model is made available to the general public between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any Gemini model released after market creation and labeled as "Pro" may qualify (e.g., gemini-3.2-pro, gemini-3.5-pro, or gemini-4.0-pro-preview). Gemini models labeled only as Flash, Flash-Lite, or another non-Pro variant will not qualify. Products labeled as a GA promotion of an already-existing Preview model (e.g., gemini-3.1-pro-ga) may qualify A qualifying model must be launched and publicly accessible, including via open beta or open rolling waitlist signups. A closed beta or any form of private access will not suffice. The release must be either clearly defined and publicly announced by Google as being accessible to the general public or otherwise made publicly accessible and explicitly labeled within the company's official website. Labeling errors, placeholder text, or version names displayed on the website that do not correspond to a model that is actually accessible to the general public will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from Google, with additional verification from a consensus of credible reporting.
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by December 31, 2026? | Polymarket | 56% Yes | Open |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by September 30, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 15, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 9, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
| Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released by October 23, 2026? | Polymarket | 100% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue this minuteDiscussion on Predxy
What Predxy's readers make of this market. Everyone can read; signed-in readers can write. The venue's own thread, when it has one, is the box below.Sign in to join the discussion.
Nobody has said anything here yet.
25 comments
From Polymarket's own thread- tomatoapple · 19 days ago
Oh come on, Argon should count as pro!!
- Keldarton · 29 days ago
Announced, not released. And not with a pro tier yet.
- Zabahudin · last month
No
- K7fhp9vXm2Rtw4LbN8cGy3Ds6AoE · last month
Gemini 4 Argon has already been released.
- K7fhp9vXm2Rtw4LbN8cGy3Ds6AoE · last month
Does Argon count as Pro ?
- Konfucious · last month
cheeky insiders
- Dafdafv66 · last month
Ridiculous
- George.Smiley · last month
Insiders will be wrong then, not coming out today
- avaaweb3 · last month
insider game
- JJ-9527 · last month
How is Sep 30 priced higher than Oct 9 now? This market is getting ridiculous lol. What is going on here?
- JJ-9527 · last month
How is Sept 30 suddenly at 11% while Oct 15 is dropping lol? That makes no sense. Sept 30 should be way below 11%. The next model is almost certainly Gemini 4.0, not another 3.x Pro.
- Never-KYS · last month
By october 31 is a lock😎
- Ponno · last month
NEXT 3 DAYS TRUST
- mvaulina57 · 2 months ago
any rumors?
- Harmful-Gosling · 3 months ago
any reference?
- dabitron · 3 months ago
gemini 3.5 pro leaked in lmarena
- lamyk · 3 months ago
ncw buy my shares please or sell into my order, 58c y, 42c n, both ok. i need this.
- Klutzy-Comma · 4 months ago
gemini pro is realeseing on july 24 lol
- Bogus-Killing · 4 months ago
you are not a leaker sonion its being delayed because they had to completely redo the ground work. being it was trained on an older model. more modern leaks show it mogs fable
- stray23 · 4 months ago
I believe you`re wrong. See the
As of Nov 1, 01:54 PM UTC