GeminiOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Best AI at the end of 2026? — Ernie

No99%

Yes1%

Price checked at Oct 4, 04:59 AM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

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ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

If Baidu has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls). If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full [terms & conditions](<https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fea66c0a95d3c45e5810d4a006785e648?alt=media&token=2d7cf5c5-b5d4-469a-a23d-fc3cb10f6ecc&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba>)

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. The venues resolve at different times on or shortly after Dec. 31, 2026; this does not change the underlying question. The published criteria are materially the same, though Gemini additionally states the event is mutually exclusive.

Geminithis market
Best AI at the end of 2026? — Ernie
If Baidu has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls). If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full [terms & conditions](<https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fea66c0a95d3c45e5810d4a006785e648?alt=media&token=2d7cf5c5-b5d4-469a-a23d-fc3cb10f6ecc&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba>)
read Oct 3, 09:01 PM UTC
KalshiOpen →
Best AI at the end of 2026?: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? Ernie
If Baidu has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
read Oct 3, 10:43 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Best AI at the end of 2026? — Gemini	Gemini	62% No	—	—	—	Open
Best AI at the end of 2026? — ChatGPT	Gemini	92% No	—	—	—	Open
Best AI at the end of 2026? — Claude	Gemini	52% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Best AI at the end of 2026? — Qwen	Gemini	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Best AI at the end of 2026? — Grok	Gemini	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Best AI at the end of 2026? — LLaMA	Gemini	99% No	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 8 hours ago

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As of Oct 4, 05:04 AM UTC