Best AI at the end of 2026? — ChatGPT
Price checked at
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.
Resolution rules
If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls). If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full [terms & conditions](<https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fea66c0a95d3c45e5810d4a006785e648?alt=media&token=2d7cf5c5-b5d4-469a-a23d-fc3cb10f6ecc&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba>)
The same question elsewhere
2 venues carry it- Geminithis market
Best AI at the end of 2026? — ChatGPT
If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. Otherwise, it resolves to No. Outcome verified from LM Arena Leaderboard (Remove Style Controls). If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. This event is mutually exclusive. Read the full [terms & conditions](<https://cdn.builder.io/o/assets%2F1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba%2Fea66c0a95d3c45e5810d4a006785e648?alt=media&token=2d7cf5c5-b5d4-469a-a23d-fc3cb10f6ecc&apiKey=1b77ce3a269a43e985e77f3d65f715ba>)
read Oct 3, 11:33 AM UTC
- KalshiOpen →
Best AI at the end of 2026?: Best AI on Dec 31, 2026? ChatGPT
If OpenAI has the top-ranked LLM on Dec 31, 2026, then the market resolves to Yes. If two models are tied under Rank (UB), then the model with the highest Arena Score will win. If two models are still tied after that, then the model with the most votes will win. If two models are still tied after that, the model that was released earlier will win. Important information: When checking the source for this market, check the 'Remove Style Control' toggle.
read Oct 3, 01:22 PM UTC
Other legs of this event
A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.| Market | Venue | Price | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Best AI at the end of 2026? — Gemini | Gemini | 63% No | Open |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? — Claude | Gemini | 52% Yes | Open |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? — Qwen | Gemini | 99% No | Open |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? — Ernie | Gemini | 99% No | Open |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? — Grok | Gemini | 96% No | Open |
| Best AI at the end of 2026? — LLaMA | Gemini | 99% No | Open |
Venue activity
Read from the venue 4 hours agoDiscussion on Predxy
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As of Oct 3, 03:22 PM UTC