PolymarketOpen

Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

Yes95%

No6%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:54 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$1.7K

Spread3%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	94% No	—	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	98% No	—	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	98% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	100% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	58% No	$760.4	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	86% No	$691.2	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	87% Yes	$88.9	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	93% Yes	$19.6	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 5 days ago

Holders32

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 87% · best ask 88%

Top holders

gmeowcl58566803399979996848372210557617732241832191808568606034375044360899449882183
0x4f5b0a0e380ee8f0c759c6ef12cfca011ca89a8681756087137484396032908080154720106037012364117193321996471162738509303225802
buoys81756087137484396032908080154720106037012364117193321996471162738509303225802
fElon58566803399979996848372210557617732241832191808568606034375044360899449882183
FyodorKat81756087137484396032908080154720106037012364117193321996471162738509303225802

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY14%$1.16 days ago
BUY87%$4.47 days ago
SELL13%$0.57 days ago
BUY87%$20.97 days ago
BUY87%$10.47 days ago
BUY13%$44.48 days ago

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As of Sep 29, 10:20 PM UTC