PolymarketOpen

Will there be at least 12500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?

No98%

Yes2%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:08 PM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$2K

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if there have been the specified amount or more confirmed cases of Measles (Rubeola) in humans in the territory of the United States of America in 2026 according to the CDC case counter between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The resolution source for this market will be the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter (see: https://www.cdc.gov/measles/data-research/index.html) at the resolution time. If the counter becomes unavailable, another credible source will be used. Note: Only cases reported by the CDC Measles (Rubeola) counter will qualify, regardless of reports from U.S. State agencies or other sources.

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will there be at least 10000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	94% No	—	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 4000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	98% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 3500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	100% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 4500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	95% Yes	—	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 6000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	60% No	$760.4	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 7500 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	86% No	$691.2	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 5000 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	87% Yes	$88.9	—	—	Open
Will there be at least 4750 measles cases in the U.S. in 2026?	Polymarket	93% Yes	$19.6	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 6 days ago

Holders102

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 1% · best ask 3%

Top holders

gmeowcl90952672732964538906499472921009498563693537785116296495774276488275756476013
Morphers31849040064920107698914811786278389743143314546113662294214624430980572188270
Tenebrus790952672732964538906499472921009498563693537785116296495774276488275756476013
0x8931aa50226eea3e626c961ccffcf176dcf3a90c90952672732964538906499472921009498563693537785116296495774276488275756476013
smap31849040064920107698914811786278389743143314546113662294214624430980572188270

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

BUY3%$108 days ago
SELL98%$229 days ago
SELL1%$0.110 days ago
BUY2%$0.110 days ago
SELL1%$0.512 days ago
SELL1%$0.312 days ago

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As of Sep 29, 09:33 PM UTC