PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?

No82%

Yes18%

Price checked at Sep 30, 12:19 AM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$1.1K

Spread7%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. The criteria differ in no material way; Polymarket specifies a settlement timestamp corresponding to the stated deadline, while PredictFun leaves resolvesAt unspecified.

PredictFunOpen →
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
read Sep 29, 10:51 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
29 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 29, 05:13 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Polymarket	86% No	—	—	—	Open
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?	Polymarket	67% No	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 8 hours ago

Holders29

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Top holders

Dr.PNL27611126619833983167394473297717017516720594766441087984863149222809105188309
libratus164585045408580006060972950251724577925745984782662932049026163588543980790989
lukas1164585045408580006060972950251724577925745984782662932049026163588543980790989
LornaPredicts27611126619833983167394473297717017516720594766441087984863149222809105188309
Contentious-Dinnerdate64585045408580006060972950251724577925745984782662932049026163588543980790989

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL85%$23.14 days ago
BUY15%$3.15 days ago
SELL77%$2.510 days ago
BUY86%$8.610 days ago
BUY84%$18.510 days ago
BUY83%$5.810 days ago

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As of Sep 30, 01:02 AM UTC