PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?

No67%

Yes34%

Price checked at Sep 30, 02:51 AM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$205.4

Spread23%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria are materially identical; Polymarket lists a settlement timestamp immediately after the stated deadline, while PredictFun does not specify one separately.

PredictFunOpen →
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
read Sep 29, 10:49 PM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
35 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 29, 05:11 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Polymarket	86% No	—	—	—	Open
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	Polymarket	82% No	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 10 hours ago

Holders35

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 55% · best ask 78%

Top holders

libratus120656416791201623600873036536896586535854823952295504038360122475611215350646
PeterEriksson7504713964841176248269133873797070571500692914385879726109670124291437271995
lukas1120656416791201623600873036536896586535854823952295504038360122475611215350646
DatosNoRelatos7504713964841176248269133873797070571500692914385879726109670124291437271995
SlayerH7504713964841176248269133873797070571500692914385879726109670124291437271995

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

SELL25%$102 days ago
SELL31%$9.37 days ago
BUY77%$5.910 days ago
SELL23%$0.210 days ago
BUY68%$4.112 days ago
BUY30%$5.812 days ago

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As of Sep 30, 03:22 AM UTC