PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?

No86%

Yes14%

Price checked at Sep 30, 04:11 AM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$353.9

Spread4%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria are identical in all material respects. Polymarket specifies a settlement timestamp of 2027-01-01T04:59:00Z, while PredictFun does not separately publish one; this is the same deadline in ET.

PredictFunOpen →
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
read Sep 30, 02:50 AM UTC
Polymarketthis market
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
92 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 29, 09:51 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?	Polymarket	97% No	—	—	—	Open
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?	Polymarket	67% No	—	—	—	Open
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	Polymarket	82% No	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 6 hours ago

Holders92

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 84% · best ask 89%

Top holders

big-short42042542651490850191109451249805584030731682405270938581487095741144689088848
Investnow42042542651490850191109451249805584030731682405270938581487095741144689088848
KimJonEn55237267382663318639829930283291478171269752819972048100705552975221794631659
Hakei.55237267382663318639829930283291478171269752819972048100705552975221794631659
thursdays55237267382663318639829930283291478171269752819972048100705552975221794631659

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As of Sep 30, 04:11 AM UTC