PolymarketOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?

No97%

Yes3%

Price checked at Sep 30, 01:45 AM UTC

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24h volume—

7d volume—

30d volume—

Liquidity$1.2K

Spread1%

ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

Market-implied probabilities · All recorded history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".

The same question elsewhere

2 venues carry it

View the combined question →

Comparable, not identical. The published resolution criteria do not differ materially. Polymarket lists a nominal resolution time of January 1, 2027, while PredictFun does not publish one; both specify the same December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET event cutoff.

Polymarketthis market
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
37 holders · 0 comments · read Sep 29, 10:34 PM UTC
PredictFunOpen →
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1650 by December 31?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if any model on the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/) reaches at least the specified Arena Score by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Results from the 'Score' section on the 'Text Arena' Leaderboard tab (https://lmarena.ai/leaderboard/text), with the style control unchecked, will be used to resolve this market. The resolution source is the Chatbot Arena LLM Leaderboard (https://lmarena.ai/). If this source is temporarily unavailable, the market remains open until it is accessible again; if permanently unavailable, this market will resolve to "No".
read Sep 29, 09:50 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

A leg read alone is misleading; the others are beside it.

Market	Venue	Price	24h volume	Liquidity	Scheduled end	Status
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31?	Polymarket	86% No	—	—	—	Open
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1600 by December 31?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1700 by December 31?	Polymarket	96% No	—	—	—	Open
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1530 by December 31?	Polymarket	67% No	—	—	—	Open
Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?	Polymarket	81% No	—	—	—	Open

Venue activity

Read from the venue 4 hours ago

Holders37

Held value—

Trades (24h)—

Trades—

Open interest—

Comments0

Top holders

big-short8342434723746511781161980957465144473894135541779205331435109340469350916993
Numitus199453149754334069033198729598650299218151129705857026497832930052606800644234393
thecaricature53149754334069033198729598650299218151129705857026497832930052606800644234393
Bsau453149754334069033198729598650299218151129705857026497832930052606800644234393
a5a5d53149754334069033198729598650299218151129705857026497832930052606800644234393

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Recent trades

BUY4%$110 days ago
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SELL95%$9.118 days ago
SELL95%$9.918 days ago
SELL4%$0.822 days ago
BUY95%$58.522 days ago

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As of Sep 30, 02:10 AM UTC