Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?
46%Yes
1 ptsover 24hVolume-weighted across 1 of 2 venues
24h volume$44.6
Total volume$6.7K
Markets22 venues, 1 priced
ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months
First seenSep 2, 2026
Watching0
Probability history
Market-implied probabilities on Polymarket · All recorded historyDrag to move · pinch or ⌘/Ctrl+scroll to zoom
Based on market prices from Polymarket. These may differ from Predxy’s combined probability above.
Where this question trades
2 venuesComparable, not identical. Each venue words the question and its resolution rules its own way: settlement date, source of truth, and edge cases can all differ. Read each venue's rules before treating two prices as the same thing.
- Predict.funWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?no volume publishedResolution rules →Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →
- PolymarketWill any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31?54% No$44.6 24h volumeResolution rules →Set your country to see where you can trade.Set your country →
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As of Oct 2, 09:49 AM UTC · Market prices are not certainties.