Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...: December 31

No97%
Yes3%

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24h volume—
7d volume—
30d volume—
Liquidity—
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ResolvesJan 1, 2027in 3 months

Probability history

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Probability history0%25%50%75%100%Sep 2Sep 9Sep 17Sep 24Oct 1Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.Shaded periods have no successful hourly price check.

Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

The same question elsewhere

View the combined question →
Comparable, not identical. Limitless and Polymarket have the same stated resolution time of January 1, 2027 04:59 UTC; Opinion lists December 31, 2026 00:00 UTC as its market resolution time, but its criteria use the same December 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET deadline. The published substantive resolution criteria are otherwise materially identical.
  • Limitlessthis market

    Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...: December 31

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

    2 holders · read Oct 1, 03:01 PM UTC

  • PolymarketOpen →

    Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

    8.5K holders · 1.7K comments · read Oct 1, 05:01 PM UTC

  • OpinionOpen →

    Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?

    This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of the United States, any member of the Cabinet of the United States, any member of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, or any US federal agency definitively states that extraterrestrial life or technology exists by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the government of the United States, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.

    read Oct 1, 05:36 PM UTC

Other legs of this event

MarketVenuePriceStatus
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by...: September 30Limitless50% YesOpen

Venue activity

Holders2
Held value$1
Trades (24h)—
Trades1
Open interest—
Comments0

Best bid 0% · best ask 100%

Top holders

  • 0xaeE0cFc6a1356B5e76198EDF4A0f08b4efD32708No$1
  • 0x3Eda6446d3f458E8ce2b9C433C59D719E331fc28Yes$0

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

  • —97%$110 days ago

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As of Oct 1, 05:45 PM UTC