LimitlessOpenPart of a cross-venue question →

Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?

No86%

Yes15%

Price checked at Sep 29, 09:32 PM UTC

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7d volume—

30d volume—

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ResolvesDec 31, 2026in 3 months

Probability history

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Based on this market’s outcome prices, expressed as probabilities.

Resolution rules

This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.

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PolymarketOpen →
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
6.6K holders · 1 comments · read Sep 26, 01:38 PM UTC
Limitlessthis market
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States commences a military offensive intended to establish control over any portion of Iran by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purposes of this market, land de facto controlled by Iran or the United States as of November 4, 2025 12:00 PM ET, will be considered the sovereign territory of that country. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible sources.
2 holders · read Sep 29, 08:00 PM UTC

Venue activity

Read from the venue 2 hours ago

Holders2

Held value$2.9

Trades (24h)—

Trades6

Open interest—

Comments0

Best bid 14% · best ask 15%

Top holders

0x3Eda6446d3f458E8ce2b9C433C59D719E331fc28No$2.5
0x7c4DC6c721D91A17419E43AE37D9AB40f6417F30Yes$0.4

A snapshot of positions, not a track record.

Recent trades

—16%$1.63 days ago
—17%$1.83 days ago
—85%$126 days ago
—84%$128 days ago
—15%$0.129 days ago
—17%$0.629 days ago

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As of Sep 29, 09:32 PM UTC